Stock trading: strategy & analytics

Principles behind every plan

A good trade is decided before the entry. My plans rest on a fixed set of rules rather than gut feeling — so the same logic can be repeated and reviewed.

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Post-trade review & plan for the week

The 190 long filled on 29.06. Price tapped the 200 zone three times, never printed TP1 (203), and closed the pre-holiday week at 194.83. Here is what the tactic got wrong, where profit should have been taken, and the plan into 6–10 July.

• Holiday ignored. The plan set “fixation” for Fri 03.07, but NYSE/Nasdaq were fully closed that day (Independence Day, moved to Friday because 4 July fell on Saturday). The real last session was Thu 02.07 — the position ran into a 3-day weekend with no way to react.
• TP1 on the hardest level. 203 sits exactly on equilibrium — the strongest resistance. Too greedy for a first target in a risk-off market.
• No partial at 200. Because 203 never printed, nothing was banked and the trade round-tripped from +5.6% back to +2.5%.
• Pre-holiday de-risking not planned. Thin liquidity + a long weekend routinely trigger profit-taking — exactly the 02.07 fade from 200 to 194.83.
• No structure exit. When the higher-low at 195.11, then 193.45, broke, the short-term uptrend was already failing — a signal to reduce.

• 30.06 — first tap of 200 (+5.3%). Price reached the resistance/EQ approach → take 50% off here.
• 01.07 — second rejection at ~200, a lower high forming (double top). Momentum failing at the level → bank the rest or tighten the stop to ~197.
• 02.07 — third rejection, then a bearish close (200.05 → 194.83) on the pre-holiday session. Triple top + bearish daily close + long weekend = exit everything.

Notional ≈ $1,900 (19% of a $10,000 account). Commission ~ Swedbank €3.90/side. Net at target = partial 50% at TP1 + a runner.

• A 4th rejection at 200 without a higher high = momentum dead → close.
• A daily candle closing below 192.35 (last swing low) = structure broken → exit the long.
• Losing 190 (break-even) = thesis invalid short-term → out, reassess at 185.
• Failure to close above EQ 203 after tagging it → don’t hold for the full target, bank it.
• Full invalidation: a daily close below 175.

What was done on this plan — and what tomorrow decides

Executed from the plan, at a bigger size: on 29.06 I bought 50 shares at 190 (≈ $9,500 of a $10,000 account). 08.07 NVDA broke the 200.6 triple top and closed at 204.13 — above EQ. Today, 09.07, the stop-loss moved from 185 to 203: profit is locked at the level. Tomorrow either the stop takes me out at 203, or price goes higher and the first take-profit is banked — 50% of the position (25 shares) at 208, the rest rides to 213.

• 29.06, ~17:10 — entry. Sweep of 189.80 → 1H reversal (B+ trigger) → buy 50 @ 190, stop 185. Position ≈ $9,500 — 5× the plan’s 20% cap; honestly flagged as a rule deviation.
• 30.06–02.07 — held through the triple rejection at 200. Nothing banked — recorded as a mistake in the weekly review above.
• 02.07, close — hold over the 3-day weekend. 194.83 > 192.35: structure intact, the rules gave no exit signal.
• 06.07 — rule check at the low. Retest down to ~192.5; the daily close stayed above the 192.35 exit level → hold confirmed.
• 07.07 — higher low, recovery to ~197. Hold; targets confirmed: 208 → 213.
• 08.07, ~21:30–22:40 — breakout. Triple top 200.6 broken, EQ 203 reclaimed, day closed at 204.13 — above EQ (by the rule, a close above EQ = hold for the target).
• 09.07 — stop 185 → 203. Profit locked at the level: the worst case is now an exit at 203. Tomorrow: stop-out at 203, or TP1 — sell 25 @ 208, runner 25 → 213.

Gross mark-to-market on 50 shares (notional $9,500); closes for 06–07.07 read off the chart (≈). Average ≈ +$101 per session over 7 sessions (~1% of the account per day). Commission: €3.90 per side.

*The 203 floor holds only without a gap: an open below 203 fills the stop lower. 203 = EQ — former resistance, now support. Initial risk was $250 (190 → 185): an exit at 203 = 2.6R; full realization 208 + 213 ≈ 4R.

• Orders in the book in advance. TP1 rests as a limit at 208 and the stop sits at 203 — the decisions are made before the session, not during it (the 30.06–02.07 mistake of three untouched taps is closed).
• A stop that locks profit. Instead of watching a paper gain melt (the 02.07 lesson: from +5.6% back to +2.5%), the stop moves above entry to 203 as soon as EQ is reclaimed — the trade can no longer turn into a full giveback.
• Exchange calendar in the template. Every plan now checks holidays and shortened sessions — no more “fixation” scheduled on a closed market (the 03.07 lesson).
• Structure level as the only hold filter. 06.07 tested ~192.5: the daily close above 192.35 said “hold” — a rule-based decision, not hope.
• De-risking rules pre-written. Stop-to-break-even, pre-weekend reduction and exit triggers are written before the event, not improvised during it.

Above EQ 203 the trade now manages itself: a 203 stop-out or a 208 partial. A new buy plan will be published only on a 200 retest that holds, or a return to the OTE zone 184–195.

The stop did its job a day early — +6.4% banked, the rally left without me

Thursday 09.07 NVDA faded into the close at 202.78 — through the 203 stop. The position closed at ≈203: net ≈ +$641 (+6.4% of the account, 2.6R) in eight sessions. On Friday 10.07 the market ran +4.03% to 210.96 — TP1 208 printed and T2 213 was almost tagged, one day after the exit and without the position. The trade is profitable; the stop location is the lesson.

Initial risk was $250 (190 → 185), so the trade closed at 2.6R with the account never below entry after 30.06. Account: $10,000 → ≈ $10,641. The remaining ≈$370–400 of the move was the price of the stop location.

• 203 is the most obvious level on the chart. Stops resting exactly on a key level are liquidity. On 09.07 price swept it (low 199.6, close 202.78), collected the stops — and on 10.07 gapped up and ran +4%. A textbook sweep, and my stop was part of the fuel.
• The stop moved up too fast. It went to 203 one day after the breakout, leaving no room for the standard breakout → retest → continuation sequence. The retest came on schedule — and took the position with it.
• Where it belonged: behind structure with a buffer — ~199.4, under the round 200, the broken triple top 200.6 and the day’s low. That stop survives 09.07; TP1 25 @ 208 then fills on 10.07 and the runner marks 210.96.
• Size was still 5× the cap. The 203 “floor” was luck as much as design: a news gap below 203 on ≈95% of the account would have filled far lower. A profitable result does not validate the size.

• Profit was locked by rule, not by mood. The 02.07 lesson (+5.6% melting to +2.5%) did not repeat: the worst case was pre-defined at +6.4% — and that is exactly what was banked.
• Orders sat in the book in advance. The stop executed without hesitation, emotion or “one more day”.
• The decision log matches reality. Entry, holds, the 06.07 rule check and the exit all trace back to written rules — the whole trade is reviewable.

• Stops live behind structure, never on it. A protective stop goes behind the nearest swing plus the round number with a buffer (here ~199.4), not on EQ or round levels — a stop on the obvious level is donated liquidity.
• Breakouts get room to retest. After a level is reclaimed, the stop tightens only once the retest holds, or after two daily closes above the level — whichever comes first.
• The 20% position cap becomes a hard gate. Size is checked by the position calculator before entry; a plan whose size violates the cap is not executed at all.

No position. 210.96 is premium (above EQ 203) — by the method, not a buy location. Scenarios for the week:

• Continuation through 213 → 218–222 (~45%). Friday closed at the high on expanding volume; above 213 there is little structure until ~220, then the path toward the 236.54 ATH.
• Consolidation 206–213 with a retest of the 208 breakout (~35%). The healthy path. A 208 retest that holds is the primary re-entry trigger.
• Pullback to EQ 203 (~20%). Former resistance, now support. A daily close back below 203 cancels the bullish read; below it, 200 and the 199.4 area decide.

Re-entry only on a retest that holds — 208 first, 203–205 second; no chasing at 211. Watching: recurring “in-house AI chip” headlines (DeepSeek) as the standing bear catalyst; next earnings late August.

Verdict on the round trip: plan 8/10 — levels and scenarios worked, the 55% base case realized; execution 6/10 — disciplined, but the stop location gave the trade away a day early; risk 4/10 — the size cap was ignored and only luck kept that free. Net +6.4% in eight sessions, banked by rule. The next edge is not better entries — it is letting winners survive their retests.

Maximum arguments for a move higher

The strongest case for NVDA continuing up from here, grouped by what each argument reads — with a realization probability per target.

• HTF trend intact: weekly bullish (P1 ✓); on the daily, higher highs / higher lows from the 168 lows.
• Holds above entry/BE 190 and the 189–192 demand zone after the pullback — buyers are defending.
• 02.07 low 192.35 is higher than 29.06 low 189.80 — higher lows forming on the pullback.

• 29.06 swept 189.80 (below the 26.06 low) then reversed up — a bullish liquidity sweep / stop-run reversal.
• Price sits in the OTE / discount zone below EQ — a favorable buy location by the method (P3 ✓).
• Three closes clustered 194–200 — base building above demand, not a breakdown.

• Strong relative strength — in risk-off NVDA −1.6% vs AVGO −3.7%, MU −6.7%; the sector leader.
• Up-day 30.06 on healthy volume (166M); selling came on thin pre-holiday liquidity = weak hands.

• EQ 203 is only ~4% away — one strong session reclaims it.
• A break of the 200.6 triple top opens 208 → 213 (path toward the 236 ATH retest).
• Post-holiday seasonality — early July tends bullish for large-cap tech.
• Catalyst — if semis (SOXX) stabilize, NVDA leads the bounce on relative strength.

Overall bullish bias for the week ≈ 55–60%.

Honest counter-condition: the bull case breaks if a daily candle closes below 192.35, or price is rejected a 4th time at 200 without a higher high.